Had enough of election politics, make money on it instead
Some pundits have less interest in the political outcome and more in their betting slips…
So here are some of the odds, opportunities and potential outcomes…
A bet on the Conservatives:
Outright Conservative Victory (Absolute Majority). Ladbrokes currently have this possibility rated at 4/7
Conservative Party Partial Victory (Parliamentary Majority). Ladbrokes currently have this possibility rated at 4/7.
Conservative Party Falls Short (Coalition Building). Ladbrokes currently have this possibility rated at 7/4
And the market opportunities? Morgan Stanley have done some research.
Property stocks seem intimately linked to the likelihood of a Conservative win.
If the currency markets react strongly to a Conservative win, it will also benefit property.
A pound bounce will give financials a boost. Along with food retail, utilities, and oil and gas.
One for currency traders – the Aussie dollar currently looks overvalued, particularly if Conservatives win.
Shorting strategies.
Government spending is set to go down in a Conservative win, so linked stocks will take a hammering.
A bet on Labour. More odds for the purist gambler.
Labour Wins Partial Majority (Coalition Building). Ladbrokes currently have this possibility rated at 7/4.
Labour Party Outright Victory (Absolute Majority). Ladbrokes currently have this possibility rated at 10/1.
The odds on a Lib Dem win are probably available but we like to think our audience’s grasp of probability negates the need.
Sources: Ladbrookes, Morgan Stanley, BI – for a full-on flippy of visuals and commentary.
