E&Y: Profit Warnings at 10yr Low
Ernst & Young has recorded the lowest first-quarter profit warning figure in the history of its survey…
Which is good news of course but perhaps not quite as good as it first appears:
The Times: The number of profit warnings by quoted firms, which have been monitored for the past decade by Ernst & Young, the accountancy firm, fell to only 54 in the first quarter, a drop of more than 50% compared with the level of 117 in the corresponding period last year.
…
However, Keith McGregor, restructuring partner at Ernst & Young, struck a note of caution. “We could extrapolate from these figures further evidence that the recession has been much easier than expected on consumer-facing companies, and it is true that consumer spending has held up remarkably well,” he said.
“But it is also worth noting the large caveat to these figures — the 33% drop in the number of quoted retailers over the past three years.”
Don’t get hoodwinked by survival bias.









